NFL Week 11 expert picks and odds for Vikings vs. Cowboys, Chiefs vs. Chargers and every other game (2024)

NFL Week 11 features the Vikings and Cowboys battling to determine which is the better team in the NFC, a key AFC West battle on Sunday night between the Chiefs and Chargers and we might get our first snow game of the year, as Buffalo is supposed to get several feet of snow between now and Sunday evening. The Bills are scheduled to host the Browns at 1 p.m. Sunday.

Thursday night features the Packers as slight favorites at home against the Tennessee Titans. The Ravens are favored by nearly 13 points against the Carolina Panthers and are the biggest favorites of the week on the betting card.

One of the more interesting spreads of the week finds the Dallas Cowboys favored on the road at Minnesota. Yep, the Vikings (8-1) are underdogs at home after beating the Bills, while the Cowboys (6-3) blew a 14-point lead to the Packers at Lambeau Field.

The 49ers are favored by more than a touchdown for their Monday night matchup against the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City. Kyler Murray missed Sunday’s game against the Rams and it will be interesting to watch his status throughout the week.

Favorites are 88-58-1 straight up this season, but underdogs are 81-60-6 against the spread (57.4%)

Odds update live. The Jaguars, Dolphins, Seahawks and Buccaneers are on bye this week.

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers

The Green Bay Packers season is hanging by a thread, and if they are going to turn it around, they are going to need to start stacking wins immediately. They picked up a huge win on Sunday against Dallas and are back home on Thursday night for another top team when the Tennessee Titans come into Lambeau Field. The Packers, despite their struggles, are still a field goal favorite.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Green Bay. The game will be shown on Amazon Prime.

Thanks to a five-game losing streak that buried them deep in the NFC standings, it has been a really difficult season for the Packers. Aaron Rodgers has looked like a fraction of his former self, and the offense has just been seemingly stuck in neutral following the offseason trade of wide receiver Davante Adams.

Not only are the Packers down in the standings, but they are not getting many breaks the rest of the way regarding their schedule, with Tennessee, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Miami all remaining on the schedule, as well as what should be a tough rivalry road game in Chicago.

Even though the bottom half of the NFC playoff picture looks up for grabs, the Packers have almost no margin for error.

The Titans, meanwhile, are in the driver’s seat for the AFC South crown, and now that starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill is back, they have some semblance of a passing game again. He threw for a pair of touchdowns in his return to the lineup in the Titans’ win over Denver this past week.

Even with that, the Titans’ offense still runs through superstar running back Derrick Henry, who has gotten himself back on track over the past months. He has topped the 100-yard mark in five of his past six games and will be going against one of the league’s worst run defenses on Thursday.

Given the struggles of both offenses this season and the short week, it does not seem to be a huge offensive game. The over/under sits at 41 for Thursday.

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons

The bad news for the Chicago Bears: They have lost three games in a row and appear headed toward another lost season. The good news? They seem to have found their quarterback in Justin Fields. Fields and the Bears take their suddenly resurgent offense on the road to Atlanta on Sunday, where they are a field goal underdog against the Falcons.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from Atlanta. The game will be televised on FOX.

Fields has been one of the biggest stories in the NFL over the past few weeks as he has gone from looking like a borderline bust to a blossoming star.

He has rushed for more than 140 yards in back-to-back games, accounting for 13 touchdowns (rushing and passing) and only two interceptions over his past four games. The Bears offense has taken a massive turn during that time, averaging more than 31 points over the past four contests.

The Falcons, meanwhile, are still trying to stay in the NFC South race and enter the week a game back of Tampa Bay for the top spot. Their offense has been carried by a strong running game all season, but they have hit a rut in recent weeks. Atlanta has lost three of its past four games and failed to score 20 points in each loss.

Despite their recent struggles, the Falcons still have a shot in the NFC South with a manageable schedule the rest of the way. Including the Bears, five of their final seven opponents have losing records while they close the regular season at home against first-place Tampa Bay. There is still a path to the division, but they must take advantage of these games against losing teams.

Both teams have defenses that rank among the worst in the NFL, and given the way Fields has played lately and the way Atlanta’s offense has shown flashes of being able to put points on the board, there is a real chance this game turns into a track meet. The over/under of 50 is tied (with Kansas City and the Chargers) for the highest mark of the week.

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens

Carolina is not a 3-7 team. I mean, they are, but they aren’t. Steve Wilks is 2-3 as head coach (and a missed field goal away from 3-2) and has transformed the Panthers into an exciting group to watch — from D’Onta Foreman’s string of 100-yard games to Baker Mayfield’s enthusiasm in his new/former backup role. This is not a team you want to face — they’ve put up three games of 330-plus yards (under Matt Rhule and with Christian McCaffrey, they had…zero). They’ve twice held opponents to under 16 points. Their post-game locker room victory celebrations are full of exuberance. They have one of the most exciting young defenders in the NFL in Jaycee Horn.

And yet… they’re nearly a two-touchdown underdog. The kickoff between the Ravens and Panthers is at 1 p.m. Sunday from Baltimore. Fox will televise the game.

The Ravens have allowed the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL this season. While the Panthers haven’t necessarily been good at that, Baker Mayfield has weapons — DJ Moore, Laviska Shenault, Terrace Marshall, Raheem Blackshear and Tommy Tremble. It will be interesting to see if Foreman, who has three 100-yard games in his last four, can break through that same Baltimore defense, which has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL this time season — and that was before they acquired Roquan Smith.

Lamar Jackson started the season looking like a sure-fire MVP candidate, but he’s cooled off considerably, with just six touchdowns — rushing and passing combined — in his last six games. But the Ravens are 4-2 in that span, so separating fantasy from reality is maybe the best route here. Are they winning despite Jackson’s slump… or are they winning because Jackson is doing what he needs to do to put them in a position to win? He hasn’t thrown an interception in three games or just one fumble in his last three. But still… huge favorites to a Carolina team that has been competitive — outside of that disaster against the Bengals — seems steep.

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (in Detroit)

Don’t look now, but the Buffalo Bills have suddenly lost back-to-back games and are in third place in the AFC East. They look to get back on track this week against the Cleveland Browns and are more than a touchdown favorite.

Something to keep an eye on for this game, especially as it relates to the over/under (41): Buffalo is expected to get hit with a massive snowstorm that could dump several feet of snow on the area before and during the game so the game was moved to Detroit.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from Detroit. The game will be televised on CBS.

The big issue for the Bills the past few weeks has been some sloppy play from superstar quarterback Josh Allen who has suddenly developed some turnover issues. He has thrown six interceptions over Buffalo’s past three games and also lost a crucial fumble in the end zone that allowed Minnesota to take a late lead on Sunday. Even though Allen led a game-tying field goal drive to send the game into overtime, he ended the game with a terrible interception in the end zone.

The Bills have one of the league’s best offenses, but they have no running game outside of Allen, who leads the team with 476 yards rushing. They need more from their running backs, and they need Allen to do a better job protecting the football if they are going to get back on track. The turnover problems in recent weeks have already put a dent in their quest for a bye week and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Cleveland still has one of the league’s best running backs, Nick Chubb, to help carry its offense, but everything else has fallen off a cliff as the season has progressed. The Browns enter the game, having lost five of their past six games to rapidly drop them out of contention in the AFC playoff race. The goal was to stay in contention long enough for Deshaun Watson to come back from his suspension and maybe give the offense a lift, but that has not happened.

For whatever problems the offense has had, the defense has been a much bigger issue and has allowed 26.4 points per game. Only the Detroit Lions have been worse.

Washington Commanders at Houston Texans

Week 11’s cross-conference battle between Washington and Houston features two teams sitting at the bottom of their respective divisions. With just one win to their name, the Texans head into Sunday’s matchup as small underdogs at home.

The Texans will look to win their first home game of the season at 1 p.m. ET Sunday on FOX. The Commanders have only made it into, or out of, the teens twice over the past five games, which means even Houston’s bottom-tier NFL offense, in terms of yards (301.2) and points per game (16.6), could be able to muster up enough production to pull off a win. But how realistic is it to trust that Davis Mills, Dameon Pierce and Co. will do so?

While being at the bottom of a loaded NFC East is nothing to be ashamed of in 2022, considering the Commanders’ 5-5 record, it’s surely unideal for Ron Rivera and his team. As the season grows shorter, the Commanders have got to begin stringing some wins. Sunday’s visit to Houston is the perfect opportunity to set the tone for the rest of the season by piecing together consecutive victories after their upset of the Eagles on Monday night.

Philadelphia Eagles at Indianapolis Colts

This game between the Colts and the Eagles suddenly has some intrigue! The Eagles are still favored by nearly a touchdown on the road.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from Lucas Oil Stadium. CBS will broadcast the game.

Monday morning, we all assumed the story here would be Jeff Saturday’s second game as Colts head coach — would the euphoria fade? Could he repeat his win against the Raiders with a massive upset against the Eagles? Will the entire flighty media landscape change their minds to “this was a bad idea”?

But now, after the Commanders shellacked the Eagles on Monday night football, the story has a couple of new twists. Are the Eagles sloppy? Is their success unsustainable? Will the Colts catch them at just the right time, or will Nick Sirianni have his team tightened up for the game against the team he served as OC for before taking the Eagles job?

Jeff Saturday kept saying he knew how to lead, and nobody listened until it was too late — and then the scramble began to fete the hottest coach in town. It would be awesome if, in this copycat league filled with nepotism, Saturday starts a trend of recently retired players with no experience getting head coaching jobs. It could be a wonderful experiment, an incredible disaster, and might actually help the NFL with its diversity problems. Is Jay Ajayi the next coach of the Raiders? Mike and Maurkice Pouncey as modern-day Ryans, helming the Lions? Is Adam Vinatieri taking over for Nathaniel Hackett in Denver??

For a country that loves disruptors, the Saturday hiring was met with a lot of resentment and jealousy by coaching and NFL elites. Yes, it’s a gross way to circumvent the Rooney Rule. But that’s on Irsay, the Colts, Roger Goodell and the NFLPA — not Saturday. But the man knows a locker room, can relate to the players, let his assistants do their jobs, and be that head figure who inspires the players and prepares them weekly. He’s also a six-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl champion who can fix the Colts’ leaky lines and give Matt Ryan time to throw and Jonathan Taylor lanes to run. Remember that Irsay quote you saw a lot from the introductory press conference? “You want to bet against this guy? Put your money down, people.” Do you know what he said right before that? Irsay told a story about a time Saturday pulled himself out of center to block Trevor Pryce:

“‘Hey, we can’t block Trevor Pryce against Denver. We can’t block him.'”

Jeff said, ‘I can block him.’ We’ll move him to guard for one game. He blocked him.

New York Jets at New England Patriots

Both the Jets and Patriots sat last Sunday and enjoyed the perks of Week 10 byes, which should make for a rested and well-played AFC East showdown. The Patriots are favored by a field goal at home.

The site for this all-important AFC East battle will be Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, where the Patriots will host the Jets at 1:00 p.m. ET on FOX. New England will likely play to its two strengths — its strong defense and its ground attack, spearheaded by Rhamondre Stevenson — to carry them to another victory over New York. Such an approach may not be sexy, but it’s been a winning formula for the Pats.

New York’s formula for success is similar to the Patriots’, with stout defense and commitment to successfully running the football being what works best. There are few reasons not to expect the Jets’ defense to continue its stellar play. Still, with standout rookie running back Breece Hall done for the season, there are now a few more question marks with the backfield responsibilities shared between Michael Carter and James Robinson.

Nevertheless, BetMGM projects this to be one of the lowest-scoring games of the week. That projection could hold if both teams can somehow stick to their scripts.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

The Los Angeles Rams’ title defense is turning into a disaster, and they are running out of time to get it back on track. They try to snap their three-game losing streak on Sunday when they visit the New Orleans Saints. The Saints, who have lost two in a row and four of their past five, are a little more than a field-goal favorite.

Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET from the Superdome. The game will be televised on FOX.

The biggest issue for the Rams this season has been an offense that has completely evaporated. They are 29th in the league averaging just 16.4 points per game, and are now dealing with a major injury to wide receiver Cooper Kupp.

Matthew Stafford has been having a brutal season when healthy, and backup John Wolford did not fare better when he had to start this past Sunday with Stafford sidelined due to a concussion. The Rams have scored more than 20 points just one time since the start of October. Stafford practiced on Wednesday and appears to be in line to get the start on Sunday, barring any setbacks.

The Saints have been decimated by injuries lately and have not found any consistency at quarterback, with Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton struggling when they have been under center.

While the defense has improved over the past few weeks, it remains one of the worst in the NFL this season. The offense has significantly regressed over the past two weeks, managing just 23 total points in back-to-back losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh.

The only good news for each team is that they both play in bad divisions. That might be the only thing keeping the door even slightly open for them.

Detroit Lions at New York Giants

The Detroit Lions finally won a road game with Dan Campbell as their head coach last week. Can they make it two road wins in a row on the road and three wins in a row overall? They on the surprising Giants (7-2) Sunday as small underdogs.

Kickoff is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET Sunday from MetLife Stadium. FOX will televise the game.

Saquon Barkley is back to his usual self after suffering through injury-riddled seasons in 2020 and 2021. He only needs 69 yards Sunday to eclipse 1,000 yards for the season, and he’s reached the end zone six times.

The Giants’ defense is ranked ninth in scoring allowed giving up only 19.2 points per game, but they’re more towards the middle of the pack allowing 350.2 yards per game of offense to opposing teams.

Detroit’s offense is near the league’s top in both yards gained and points per game. Jared Goff’s connection with Amon-Ra St. Brown is their best weapon in the passing game. At the same time, Jamaal Williams continues to carry the load at running back, with D’Andre Swift limited in his touches as he returns from injury.

Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos

The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos both entered the 2022 season with high expectations after big offseason additions and the hiring of new head coaches. But instead of making a playoff push, Sunday’s game is for the right to stay out of last place in the AFC West while both teams enter near the bottom of the AFC standings.

The Broncos enter as nearly a field-goal favorite. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET from Denver. The game will be televised on CBS.

It is remarkable how similar both teams have been this season in their struggles. Both made blockbuster additions to their offense this offseason (Denver adding quarterback Russell Wilson; Las Vegas adding wide receiver Davante Adams), both have first-year head coaches that appear to be in way over their heads and might already be on the hot seat, and both have one strong side of the ball that is completely wasted by the other side.

The Broncos have the league’s best defense in Denver, allowing only 16.6 points per game. That sort of defense should have them in playoff contention, and the addition of Wilson was supposed to help get them there. But while the defense is smothering opposing offenses, Denver’s offense ranks 32nd in the league, averaging just 14.6 points per game.

The offense is so bad that it has topped the 20-point mark just two times in nine games, while the Broncos have somehow lost five games in which they have allowed 19 points or less. If the Broncos even had a below-average offense instead of the league’s worst offense, they might be a lock for the playoffs.
The Raiders have the exact opposite problem, owning an offense that has averaged 23 points per game but has been held back by a defense that has spent most of the season getting torched.

Las Vegas’ past three games have been as ugly as possible, getting shutout by the Saints, blowing a 17-point lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars, and then losing to an Indianapolis Colts team led by a first-time (at any level) head coach in his first game. Things will get ugly for them if they follow all that by losing to this Broncos offense.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

Despite being tied for the NFL’s best record, the Minnesota Vikings opened Week 11 as underdogs as they prepared to host the Dallas Cowboys and the Vikings are still the underdog in Sunday’s matchup.

Minnesota is the only NFL team with a perfect record at home. The Vikings will look to keep it that way when they host the Cowboys at 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday on CBS. A good process to win on Sunday should include getting the ball to superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson, especially with how Dallas’ defense has surprisingly slipped over the past couple of weeks. Jefferson is now nursing a toe injury after his Sunday epic performance in Buffalo.

While the Cowboys’ defense may not be as dependable as it was over the first half of the season, the offense is back and clicking with a healthy Dak Prescott taking snaps. With or without Ezekiel Elliott, there’s more than enough firepower at the team’s disposal whenever Dallas’ offense takes the field. But the Cowboys will have their work cut out this weekend against one of the best teams in the NFL.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

One of the most heated rivalries in the NFL is set to resume in Week 11 when the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers clash on Sunday in Pennsylvania. The Bengals will hit the road as the pretty comfortable favorite coming off of their bye week.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS>

Things could get interesting in the AFC North following this game. For the Steelers, a second win on the season over the Bengals would keep them firmly in the hunt for a shot at the AFC North title and would also keep them in better shape to keep their consecutive “finish the season at or above .500” streak alive. Assuming it’s rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett who gets the nod, he’ll have a chance to secure his first win the in this division rivalry.

Regarding what this game means to the Bengals, either a win or loss would keep them in second place in the division. However, a win would prevent them from falling to .500, making their playoff chances tougher at this point in the season. Having had an extra week to game plan, it’s fair to expect Joe Burrow and the offense to perform much better than they did in Week 1 against the Steelers when they turned the ball over five times.

Kansas City Chiefs at Los Angeles Chargers

With a win on Sunday night, the Los Angeles Chargers can keep their chances of winning the AFC West alive. If not, the Chiefs will hold a three-game lead over Los Angeles and own the tiebreaker and will likely be on their way to winning their seventh straight AFC West title. The Chiefs are nearly a touchdown favorite.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. Sunday from SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. NBC will air the game.

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 1,200 yards in his last three games and eight touchdowns. He’s now the betting favorite to win his second MVP award at +130 at BetMGM, with Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa right behind him.

The Chiefs are now the second-highest favorite to win the Super Bowl, only slightly behind the Bills. With Buffalo’s loss on Sunday, the Chiefs now have a one-game lead on earning a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Los Angeles is 4-2 in its last six games after starting the season 1-2. It continues to battle the injury bug, with defensive tackles Otito Ogbonnia and Christian Covington being the latest Chargers added to the injured reserve. Mike Williams and Keenan Allen both practiced in a limited capacity on Wednesday, which would boost Justin Herbert if either wide receiver could play against the Chiefs.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals

The national spotlight will shine on the San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals in Week 11 for an important NFC West battle. The 49ers are better than a touchdown favorite to win this neutral-site matchup at Estadio Azteca in Mexico City.

Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. Monday on ESPN.

Will Kyler Murray take the field in Mexico as he deals with a hamstring injury that held him out of Week 10? His status obviously increases Arizona’s chances of moving into second place in the division after Monday’s game. Still, the Cardinals did prove last time they took the field that they could overcome Kyler’s injury. But playing against a healthy 49ers team will be tougher than facing the depleted Rams.

San Francisco could also move into first place in the NFC West standings with a win in Mexico City. With Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel healthy, and the offense and defense complementing one another well, Kyle Shanahan’s squad has a real opportunity in Week 11 to set themselves up nicely down the back stretch of the season.

(Photo of Tony Pollard: Richard Rodriguez/Getty Images))