NFL straight-up picks, Week 18: Unpacking a weekend with playoff stakes and meaningless games (2024)

Everything is a mess in Charlotte, from the product on the field to the drink-flinging hedge fund manager whose meddling has only seemed to make things worse. David Tepper’s team has been a disaster, clinching a No. 1 draft pick the franchise won’t be able to make (it belongs to the Chicago Bears) in a season that saw Frank Reich last 11 games as head coach and the stunning disconnect of a defense that ranks third in yards allowed but 32nd in points given up.

The Bucs, on the other hand, need a win Sunday to make it to the postseason via the NFC South crown. Failure here would be the kind of lore-building exercise appropriate for a team once owned by Hugh Culverhouse, but is unlikely. Carolina just got smoked 26-0 by a Jaguars team that started CJ Beathard at quarterback. Now the Panthers get to return home to play out the string in front of a disinterested fan base that’s been served nothing but embarrassment this season.

Yeah, Tampa Bay should be fine.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 12-5 (.706)

I don’t trust the Dolphins. Miami has 11 wins but only one came against an opponent with a winning record. This is also the same team that went up to Orchard Park, New York in Week 4 and gave up 48 points to the same Bills they’ll face with the AFC East title on the line.

Buffalo took the momentum from that win and went 3-5 in the half-season that followed, giving the world plenty of reason not to trust Sean McDermott’s team. The Bills offense is turnover prone (two-plus in seven of 16 games this season. Their defense remains solid but depth is a concern thanks to unfortunate injuries. And this team is well versed in losing games it’s supposed to win; just look at losses to Zach Wilson and Mac Jones (and, kinda/sorta Russell Wilson) for evidence.

But here’s a weird sentence to write: the Buffalo Bills have truly galvanized after reports their head coach wanted the team to be more like Al-Qaeda surfaced. Hoooooo (deep sigh). Since then, Buffalo is 4-0 and has turned 14 percent playoff odds into a win-and-in situation thanks to post-bye victories over the Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and, uh, two AFC teams we’re not gonna worry about right now. That’s enough to get me to believe in the Bills over the team whose only quality win this season came against a Cowboys team incapable of beating anyone of consequence on the road.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 16-1 (.941)

I picked against the Packers on the road last week on vibes alone, thinking a loss to the Minnesota Vikings to fall out of playoff contention would be the most damaging way to end the season — and in line with the frustrating collapses that have marred the otherwise successful Matt LaFleur era (and, before him, most of Mike McCarthy’s run). What I didn’t consider is that Green Bay could climb higher before the letdown, finding a way to run back 2022’s finish by getting to a win-and-in Week 18, then losing to a surging NFC North rival.

Last year it was the Detroit Lions. This year it’s the Chicago Bears, who’ve fielded the league’s best defense since Week 10. This is a very different team than the one Jordan Love wrapped up in a neat little package in his season opener. Chicago can bring pressure without blitzing and keep the defensive backfield stable with a higher class of defensive backs than the Vikings did in Week 17. The open windows Love exploited last Sunday won’t be as wide, and while he’s capable of stepping up and making big throws he’s also liable to backslide without warning — like he did after getting the Packers into playoff position, then losing back-to-back games against the New York Giants and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bears won’t bring a great offense to Wisconsin, but even their current below-average unit will be a step above the mess offensive coordinator Luke Getsy vomited up in Week 1. Justin Fields has been significantly better in a gameplan with more designed runs and an emphasis on DJ Moore — two things missing in that season opener. Since Week 10 the Green Bay defense ranks 25th in expected points added (EPA) per play, paving the way for Chicago to ruin their biggest rival’s season in its final game of the year.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 12-6 (.667)